wearmanyhats

The international economy, stymied by the downturn in housing, defaults on loans, and a banking crisis has finally started showing signs of a turn around.  The unemployment has certainly been an issue, but as money begins to flow a bit again, growth will slowly turn the situation back to a more stable economy.

A pandemic would not help.

In the short run, shutting down stores for ten days may even cost a resurgence in unemployment and ultimately be the death knell for thousands of small businesses.  These businesses, already hurt by the recession, could probably not sustain the one- two punch of zero foot traffic, even for ten days.  

But is a pandemic likely?  Before you can consider whether it will affect a recovery,  it should be noted that Mexico has responded with zeal to contain this contagion.  That is also true of other nations where people have been strictly quarantined.  But the biggest factor in all of this is the weather.  Summer in the northern hemisphere is on its way, and with that, more people will be outdoors.  Thus the disease has less chance of spreading wildly throughout the population.

One doctor that was interviewed said it was most likely that the disease would whither away this spring, only to come back with a vengeance in the fall.  If scenario plays out, small businesses may have the summer business to sustain enough of a comeback that ten days of no business will not devastate them.  That’s good news for the people who work for small businesses.

All eyes should be on New York now, where the disease is racing through some schools.  If the flu is able to be contained, and summer helps curb its spread, the economy should do fine.  But if not, the Obama administration will have one more challenge to its already burdened agenda.

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